I figured as much. With two weeks to go until the anniversary of the Tallinn riots, the (Internet) press is beginning to sound the ominous drumbeats. To me, it seems like paranoia. In the 1990s, foreign visitors would visit Estonia and say things like "gee, Estonia really does deserve its freedom" and it would be front page news. This seems like the same kind of thing, though I agree vigilance is good.
* It has been reported that the trains from Moscow to Tallinn are sold out for 25 April. (Well, it is a Friday night before the May 1 holiday.)
* Night Watch -- the Russian group that glorifies the Soviet occupation -- will be holding a rally in a park in Tallinn. Dum-tum.
* One of Night Watch's biggest fans, Mi(k)hhail Stalnu(k)hhin, left the Centre Party today, possibly to start a new, ethnic Russian party in Narva.
* On the headline in the pic, it is reported that one of the simulations the Russian army is running through is invasions of Georgia and Estonia.
* A survey has been conducted 71% of Estonians say they would fight for their homeland if it came to it.
* But apparently the Ministry of Defence's plans call for only a force of 16,000 to be mobilized, not the "optimum" 100,000.
* People like Edward Lucas and Rein Taagepera have written this year that had Russia not miscalculated and overreacted back in April of last year (such as having a fascist youth group attack the Estonian ambassador), the West would not have come to the support of Estonia -- by which I suppose they imply that, I don't know, a coup or something would have occurred. Really?
People, people. Let's try to relax. I realize Estonians have the 20-year itch about their independence, but we are now a member of Schengen. What will it take to reassure us? Maybe we need one more, new pan-European organization -- call it the League of the Western Lands or something -- to be a member of.
6 comments:
I think that the ultimate goal was not a coup, but to get Ansip to step down.
That was the whole evil plan. The Russians want Savisaar to be the Kekkonen of Estonia.
As we saw, Ansip instead came off looking like a strong leader and the government's approval rating soared. That wouldn't have happened if the Russians hadn't overplayed their hand.
And by the way, this whole thing is largely a byproduct of the extremely bored Estonian media. They even let me write a column about it. And who the hell am I?
American Estophile is OK.
I'd like to read it, in the original. Seriously.
Well, if being in NATO and the EU doesn't guarantee us any security, then nothing will. And if the other members of the EU and NATO were to sit back and watch Russia invade us without lifting a finger, well then, that would be the end of NATO and the EU.
Furthermore, it doesn't matter if they can officially "mobilize" 16,000 or 100,000 troops, because the Estonian military on it's own can't keep out Russia if Russia wants to come in.
What we can do is wage a very successful guerrilla war in the streets and the forests.
But if it comes to that, you'd be likely looking at a wider world war.
Russia needs to worry about China. They're going to wake up one day and all those silly Cyrillic letters are going to be Chinese characters and their vast empty lands to the East will be filled with rice paddies.
Well, if being in NATO and the EU doesn't guarantee us any security, then nothing will.
Well I agree that being a member is a huge plus I don't think that Eesti can put 100% confidence in the EU and NATO and needs to ensure that it can independently secure itself. History has taught us that the plans of big nations can often sacrifice smaller ones.
the Estonian military on it's own can't keep out Russia if Russia wants to come in.
With a little help from the outside (if not direct support) I'm sure it'd be possible. Think Finland in the 40s and Afghanistan in the 80s.
My main point, in that op-ed, was that if you are looking for national heroes from the WWII era, then you're stuck with soomepoisid and metsavennad.
No matter how honorable the intent was of those 20th Waffen SS soldiers or Red Army draftees, their foreign uniforms negates their utility as 'national heroes' for mass consumption in Estonia.
With 'soomepoisid', the message is simple -- Estonians help their democratic friends in need. 'Metsavennad', again, simple message -- when foreign occupiers come, Estonians take to the woods with guns.
Unfortunately, last year there was a burning conflict between the grandsons of the 20th Waffen SS and the Red Army. The "metsavennad" option offered the only real "Estonian" way out.
Post a Comment